Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Will another financial crisis on its way?

After the Subprime mortgage crisis started at the end of 2007 leaded to the collapse of a global housing bubble. We found ourself in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of 1930s. The US unemployment rate rosed from nearly 3% to as high as 11%, the foreclosure rates enen hit the record high at Q3, 2008 to 23%. If you can see the numbers, here is the imaging, 100 of household (if they borrowed the money from Banks and other financial institutions) 23 of them foreclosed by its lender.
When the 2010 came, we saw DOW hits 11,200, when we saw the all the profit reports from all the blue chips corporations, when we saw unemployment rate stop raising, we may said to ourself, wow, this crisis is over, the recovery is on its way. But here I will have to ring the warming ball to anyone.
The crisis isn't over, another financial crisis may on its way for three reasons, our financial system isn't stabilizing, unemployment rate is still high, capital market, and most importantly the hiding risks of foreign counties' capital market.

First one, let's talk about our financial system, I don't want to go over the history of the US financial system after WWII. I just want to say, what happened to our system and hopefully to get a batter understanding about what will happen, to even avoid things happen from the beginning. It all began at the US housing bubble, turned to sub prime mortgages crisis, and then effected on our banking system (liquidity crisis) became to the whole financial system crisis, and our economy. It started from the US then quickly spread out to the whole world. The EU took a major hit on the housing crisis because the house or the real estate is the major asset for European household. The Asian countries ( except for Japan) mostly hit by decrease of foreign investment, the frozen capital market stops everyone's access to the money. The businesses are dead all around the world, government bailouts, foreclosures for households, huge amount of layoff.


to be continued.....

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